Predicting the Oscars
‘Tis that season once again, the nominations are out, and the Oscars are approaching. The March Madness of cinema is upon us as critics match up the nominees in each category to make their “expect analyst” pick to win. Here at The Urbanian, I decided to throw my hat in the ring and make my quest to go undefeated in my picks. I’m not going to make a pick in every category, because, well do you really want my insight to Best Foreign Language Film? For the categories I choose to discuss (aka the only ones people truly care hearing about), I’ll give my brief opinion on each nominee, who I think should win, who I think will win, and who I think got snubbed. I’ve honestly seen the majority of the movies up for nominations except for Frost/Nixon, and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. I still want to see them, and if I manage to view them before the Oscars, perhaps I’ll return to this article and do a little revising. Well, here goes nothing.
Acting in a Leading Role:
Richard Jenkins: My first exposure to Jenkins this year was in Step Brothers, and I thought he was horrible and annoying. It wasn’t until later in the year when I saw The Visitor, was I in shock that this is the same actor. Jenkins plays a widow who keeps to himself, but when he stumbles upon two illegal immigrants living in his New York City apartment, his life changes forever. Jenkins performance in this movie is one of the most sincere and heartwarming performances all year. I didn’t think he would actually get nominated but I’m very happy that he did.
Frank Langella: Unfortunately for Langella, I have yet to see Frost/Nixon. Not only that, but I’ve never heard of him before this movie, and I’ve seen a lot of movies. I will say this though, just by watching the trailer for the film, I can see how he did a good job as Tricky Dick. Every time I hear him yell “I didn’t want to take any questions on Watergate,” my veins go from a calm sea to a stormy ocean.
Sean Penn: Okay, I will admit that I have never been a big fan of Penn. I enjoyed Into the Wild, which he directed, and his portrayal as everyone’s favorite stoner, Jeff Spicoli in Fast Times at Ridgemont High. His portrayal of Harvey Milk was quite good. When I first heard his name attached to Milk, I knew that more than likely an Oscar nomination was on his way, and I’m sure many other people figured that also.
Brad Pitt: Pitt is easily one of the biggest actors in cinema right now so it comes to no surprise that he got this nomination even though I’ve yet to see the movie. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button is a movie that I’ve been itching to see, but I still haven’t gotten around to it. Being poor and a full time college student athlete takes a lot of time away from you. Sorry Pitt, But I just don’t have much to say about you here. I liked you in Burn After Reading though.
Mickey Rourke: Rourke beautifully portrays a lonely aged wrestler, who attempts to fix his life after a near death experience by reconnecting with his daughter and finding love with a 44-year-old stripper. Rourke exceeded my expectations in this wonderful character study film.
Who Should Win: Mickey Rourke.
Who Will Win: Mickey Rourke. What can I say? Hollywood loves comebacks.
Who Got Snubbed: Clint Eastwood declares Gran Torino as the last movie he will ever act in, and he doesn’t get a nomination? Gran Torino was a tremendous film, and Eastwood did a phenomenal job. A nomination was necessary, but the academy blew it on this one. Maybe they were just looking to prove that they won’t hand over Eastwood an Oscar for anything he touches.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Josh Brolin: Is it just me, or is Brolin in just about every film these days? Everyone in Milk did a great job in their roles, so I can see why he is nominated. This is his first nomination and I’m sure there will be plenty more to come.
Robert Downey Jr.: I enjoyed Tropic Thunder a lot, but I was surprised when I saw Downey got the nomination. Maybe it’s because the academy generally snubs anyone and everyone when it comes to comedic films. Downey deserves a nomination though. His portrayal of a white actor undergoing surgery to play a black man in his latest movie was outstanding.
Philip Seymour Hoffman: In the last few years, Hoffman has emerged as one of the most powerful actors in the industry. Hoffman was powerful and ironically, convincing throughout Doubt, making him well deserving on the nomination.
Heath Ledger: I remember being upset when I heard Ledger was cast as the Joker. I’ll eat my words right now. Ledger’s portrayal of the Joker is one of the greatest acting performances I have ever seen. His job in that movie is worthy enough to be thrown right up there with all the big names. Haunting, exciting, comical, and intelligent he was in The Dark Knight. Rest in peace Mr. Ledger, Your acting will surely be missed.
Michael Shannon: Never heard of this guy before, but his acting in Revolutionary Road was downright creepy. He didn’t get much screen time, but when he was on, he sent a powerful message.
Who Should Win: Heath Ledger.
Who Will Win: Heath Ledger. Friends of Ledger say that Ledger hated the spotlight and was happy when he didn’t win the Oscar back in 2005 for Brokeback Mountain. Ledger’s soul will be cursing when his name gets read from the envelop Feb. 22.
Who Got Snubbed: The academy got the Milk supporting actor wrong, it should be James Franco, not Brolin.
Actress in a Leading Role
Anne Hathaway: Her? The Princess Diaries girl? I didn’t see Rachel Getting Married, so perhaps I need to see it before forming an opinion. Good for her though.
Angelina Jolie: Jolie completes the Brangelina Oscar nomination. I didn’t see Changeling, but I know she’s won an Oscar for Girl, Interrupted way back when in 1999. So she’s legit.
Melissa Leo: I saw her in a Law & Order episode once.
Meryl Streep: Possibly the best actress around, Streep has garnered 15 Oscar nominations, with two wins. In Doubt, Streep showcased her powerful acting ability. With one of the best resumes around, she’s well deserving on this nomination.
Kate Winslet: Winslet has been nominated six times in the past 13 years, pretty impressive. She got nominated for The Reader, which I didn’t enjoy, but I saw Revolutionary Road, which I thought she was spectacular in, so I’ll say this nomination is very worthy.
Who Should Win: Kate Winslet. Her speech at the Golden Globes was a bit over the top and people are saying that it ruined her chance for winning the Oscar. We’ll see.
Who Will Win: Meryl Streep. Her last win was back in 1982. She’s been a bit overdue for one and Winslet still has a long career ahead of her, same with Hathaway and Jolie.
Who got snubbed: Kate Winslet. She should have also got a nomination for Revolutionary Road. I’m serious.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams: I think there was some rule set this year that if you were in Doubt, you automatically get a nomination. She played the innocence role to perfection in the film. Good for Adams. Since appearing on The Office back in 2005, her career is starting to take off.
Penelope Cruz: teaming with Scarlett Johansson in Vicky Christina Barcelona, created some of the sexiest scenes in Hollywood this past year. If you’ve seen the film, then you know I’m referring to the dark room scene.
Viola Davis: I think I’ve seen her in a Law & Order episode too.
Taraji P. Henson: Again, I’ve yet to see CCOBB, so I can’t really make a comment on her other then I’ve never heard of her before.
Marissa Tomei: My theory is that Tomei was sitting around a year ago and suddenly realized how hot she is still at the age of 44. Upon this realization, she signed up for a role where she can be topless most of the time she is on camera. She did a superb job as the aging love interest stripper of Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler.
Who Should Win: Marissa Tomei
Who Will Win: Penelope Cruz. This is a pure gut feeling.
Who Got Snubbed: Evan Rachel Wood for The Wrestler. Perhaps she didn’t have enough screen time, or perhaps it’s because she has a boy’s name.
Directing
David Fincher: Fight Club is one of my favorite movies of all time, so it’s nice to see Fincher get a nomination. I really got to go see The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.
Ron Howard: If Howard is involved with a project, there’s a good chance that it’ll strike gold. Surprisingly this is only his fourth nomination for Frost/Nixon.
Gus Van Sant: It’s been quite some time since Van Sant’s first ever nomination for Good Will Hunting back in 1997. It’s well deserving too since Milk is by far his best movie since the world has been introduced to Will Hunting.
Stephen Daldry: I’ve never heard of this guy before, and The Reader didn’t hit the right button for me. This spot should have gone to someone else. Sorry Daldry.
Danny Boyle: Boyle has always been one of my favorite directors and I’m real glad he got his first ever nomination for Slumdog Millionaire.
Who Should Win: Danny Boyle.
Who Will Win: Ron Howard. See Best Picture category for explanation of why this will happen.
Who Got Snubbed: Christopher Nolan. You know, I was more surprised about Nolan not getting a directing nomination than The Dark Knight not getting a best picture nomination.
Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: Have I stressed the fact that I really want to see this movie enough yet?
Frost/Nixon: Need to see this one too.
Milk: The Oscars always seem to have subtle theme. This year it seems to be politics, which is unsurprising because of the inauguration of Barack Obama.
The Reader: Like I said earlier, I just didn’t enjoy this film as much as others.
Slumdog Millionaire: Once an underdog film that was going to go straight to DVD, is now hitting it big. It’s a very beautiful film, very well deserving.
Who Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire.
Who Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire. Yes, Slumdog takes it home, and this is why Ron Howard will win directing. Awarding directing and best picture to two different movies is kind of like acknowledging both films being worthy of best picture. It’s the academy’s way of telling you who was a close second in best picture.
Who Got Snubbed: The Dark Knight. Obviously. Some snobs will try and argue against this saying it’s not a true Oscar film. Stop being dumb and admit that this was in fact one of the best movies of 2008 and should at least get a nomination. I’m not saying it should win.
Well those are the only categories that I’ll cover exclusively, mainly because those are the only categories anyone really cares about anyway. Just a few other notes though…In Bruges getting nominated for writing, is great. That movie is real good, and should win… The Dark Knight will probably take home a lot of awards like cinematography and sound, to make up for the best picture snub…How did Bruce Springsteen and Jamie Cullum both get snubbed in best original song for their respective work on The Wrestler and Gran Torino. There were only three nominees in that category anyway. Can we just throw both of them in there right now?
Well that’s it for now. Check back for an Oscar recap sometime after it airs on Feb. 22.
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